The political heat generated by polls often leaves some politicians’ mouths unguarded. Their pronouncements provide us with rare insights into their thinking. We get a glimpse into the plans or strategies they have, in case they win.
You will hear more during campaign period. While most of us are focusing on December 27, we can stretch the truth and think of the period after, which is longer and perhaps more relevant.
Few people are willing to spend time speculating on how Kibaki II era will look like. We expect little change though a few people think Kibaki may make broad but unpopular changes. He may now afford to be "bad" since he would not be worried by prospects of another term. A few others fear he may just relax and wait for the sunset of his term, assured that few will ever be president.
What is not in doubt is that if Kibaki wins, there will be a generational change after five years or before, with most elderly politicians voluntarily or naturally retiring. Keen political strategists are trying to dovetail into this period, when the independence generation will finally bow out of the political scene.
Now, a more interesting question:
What if ODM wins? ODM leaders’ political pronouncements and their manifesto have given us some useful insights into their intentions.
But political reality will greatly constrain them. To mitigate the political fallout from their decisions, ODM may act in phases, giving the present power wielders time to exhale. The word witch-hunting will definitely reappear. It is an open question if an ODM victory will follow Moi’s brilliant political manoeuvres where he kept us busy with sideshows as he consolidated power. By the time we realised what was going on, we were all singing to his tune.
After victory, ODM might fight some internal battles and sacrifice a few lambs to cleanse the political system and appease the extremists. Lambs include those tainted with corruption but are currently untouchable because of their political value. More poignantly, there are only a few plum jobs available and ODM is top heavy with talent. Those left out will start fighting the same way LDP fought after missing out in major appointments after Narc victory.
More interesting is the promise for government jobs. Will ODM sack some people to create jobs for "her people"? What will be the political cost of doing so? What is clear is that government jobs and contracts are great motivator in the elections. What of jobs for the "small people", the holloi polloi?
Some think creating more political positions through constitutional change would appease the losers. Changing the Constitution is not going to be easy. Some political observers suggest boldly that in case of victory, ODM will be very reluctant to change the current Constitution. It might be expedient to "taste "power first. The likelihood of ODM getting to the State House with the current Constitution is PNU and her affiliates’ nightmare scenario.
ODM, like Narc, will make lots of promises. Fulfilling them will be another issue altogether. ODM may however get away with many promises by maintaining cordial relationship with opinion makers, media and through spinning. Within five years political reality will set in and ODM will learn hard political lessons; the masses are like wind, their direction is unpredictable.
Whoever wins this year must accept a fact; the era of coalitions is here with us. It is another matter how efficient this system is. What is clear is that such a system naturally provides checks and balances with no single region dominating the political landscape. The next one-month or so will give us more insights into what we expect after December 27. For now, we can only speculate.
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